In a world increasingly rocked by economic uncertainty, one major institutional player isn’t backing down. From the left edge of the global financial scene emerges Bitwise’s bold claim—Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025. The statement, coming from Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan, echoes across a landscape marked by geopolitical volatility, dollar devaluation, and shifting trade alliances.
The Origin of the Forecast: Bitwise’s Long View
On April 9, Hougan reaffirmed his December price target in a blog post, insisting that the recent surge in global trade tensions may act as an unexpected catalyst rather than a roadblock. His logic? A weakening U.S. dollar, deliberate or otherwise, could nudge both institutions and governments toward Bitcoin as an alternative store of value.
Middle Ground: The Dollar’s Downward Pressure
At the core of Bitwise’s thesis lies the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index), which has fallen over 7% since January. Hougan argues that Bitcoin’s historical inverse correlation with the dollar could be amplified by recent White House statements, such as Steve Miran’s critique of the dollar’s reserve status.
“We’re entering an era where Bitcoin and gold may co-exist with fiat as anchors of financial stability,” he writes.
Further Right: Ripple Effects Across the Globe
Backing this view, VanEck reported China and Russia have already settled some oil and energy trades in Bitcoin. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes takes it one step further, suggesting a yuan devaluation by China in response to Trump’s tariff escalation could spark a capital flight into BTC, just as it did in 2015.
Market Snapshot: Black Monday and the Bitcoin Bounce
Meanwhile, the crypto market is rebounding from a brutal day that saw over $1.36 billion in liquidations. Despite the chaos, Bitcoin climbed to $81,700, marking a 7.5% 24-hour increase and demonstrating its resilience.
U.S. equity futures, by contrast, collapsed:
- S&P 500: -5.98%
- Nasdaq 100: -6.2%
- Dow Jones: -5.5%
The Final Stretch: Three Speculative Paths Forward
At CryptX, we imagine three future scenarios—speculative but plausible:
Scenario 1: The Supercycle
Bitcoin surpasses $200K as institutional buyers rush in and nations adopt BTC for trade. Inflationary policies and dollar fatigue push crypto to the forefront.
Scenario 2: The Controlled Burn
BTC rises slowly amid cautious regulation. U.S. agencies play catch-up with clearer laws, but innovation is slower. Bitcoin hovers between $100K–$150K through 2025.
Scenario 3: Global Retrenchment
If geopolitical tensions erupt or central banks launch coordinated anti-crypto policies, capital could flee into CBDCs and gold, stalling Bitcoin’s growth below $80K.
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