When Circle Internet Financial raised $1 billion in its June 2025 NASDAQ launch then rocketed 600% to a $50 billion market cap in a single session commentators declared the ”ICO era is dead; long live the IPO.”
Coinbase had been the last major U.S. crypto name to ring the opening bell (April 2021), and its stock is still trading 40% below that first-day close. The four-year drought suddenly looks over and frenzied.
Why Now?
- Risk-on macro: after seven Fed rate cuts, investors are hungry for growth stories.
- SEC’s softer tone: April staff bulletin clarified how crypto issuers can satisfy Reg S-K disclosures, thawing the registration deep-freeze.
- VC exit pressure: Tiger, a16z, and Paradigm face vintage-2021 funds that need liquid marks public markets oblige.
The New Pipeline (and the Missing Names)
| Likely 2025–26 Filers | Status & Hurdles |
|---|---|
| Kraken | hired Goldman & JP Morgan; S-1 rumored for Q4 2025. |
| Gemini | waiting on resolution of NYDFS Earn investigation. |
| Circle | already listed sets valuation bar. |
| Ripple | Not coming: president Monica Long says liquidity is ample; no IPO need. |
| Swan Bitcoin | pulled plans after mining-unit implosion. |
”Success breeds a queue; failure breeds amnesia,” quips Columbia law professor Ralph DeMarco, pointing to Coinbase bulls who ignore the eight crypto miners now under water.
Anatomy of a Possible Boom
- Narrative fuel: Stablecoins like USDC finally earn interest, giving Circle a FCF pitch comparable to fintechs.
- Retail access: zero-commission apps preload IPOs into their ”Explore” tabs frictionless FOMO.
- ETF halo: the January 2024 spot-BTC ETF approvals expanded the mainstream comfort zone for digital-asset equities.
But every boom has a bust baked in.
Early Warning Sirens
| Red Flag | Historical Echo |
|---|---|
| Unvetted disclosures | Argo Blockchain faces a class-action for rosy IPO statements. |
| ”Profitless growth” comps | Circle’s margin is 13% versus Coinbase’s 39% ; dot-com deja vu. |
| VC distribution dumps | 180-day lock-ups on 2017-vintage funds expire into thin liquidity recall 2000 ”insider unlock” carnage. |
Duke University’s DAREC warns the crypto cycle ”rhymes” with dot-com more than investors admit particularly in valuation velocity.
Regulatory Wildcards
- Disclosure land mines: the SEC’s April memo still demands wallet addresses and smart-contract audit summaries material many issuers aren’t eager to publish.
- Stablecoin legislation: a bipartisan bill could reclassify reserve-asset reporting, altering Circle’s risk profile overnight.
- Election overhang: a change at the White House could flip the Gary Gensler doctrine from risky to extinct or turbo-charge it.
Playbook for Would-Be Investors
- Read the S-1 footnotes like it’s a treasure map. Wallet-attestation language > glossy TAM slides.
- Watch insider unlock calendars; a flood of VC shares on day 181 is your exit cue.
- Benchmark against Coinbase, not Nvidia these firms earn fees, not AI premiums.
- Treat miners and exchanges separately; hash-rate economics have zero correlation to trading volumes.
Expert Sound-Bites
“Circle’s pop is textbook supply-demand imbalance. The next one won’t be that skinny.” Emily Rogers, IPO strategist, Jefferies.
“If you’re paying dot-com multiples, expect dot-com volatility.” Mark Palmer, BTIG analyst, on Bloomberg Crypto newsletter.
Bottom Line
A U.S. crypto IPO boom is plausible perhaps inevitable. The bust that follows is optional but historically consistent. If 2021 taught us anything, it’s that price discovery in crypto equities happens after the confetti falls.
For now, buckle up: FOMO is bullish, but gravity is undefeated.
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